This month’s China Monthly is an abridged version due to the national holidays, but headwinds are blowing. First, there is the US-China trade war. The IMF cut China’s 2019 GDP growth forecast by 1.6% if the US slaps tariffs on all imports. But the real impact of tariffs and financial market volatilities on consumer and business confidence could prove even more severe. Further de-escalation seems more and more remote after Trump’s new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and amid a chorus of increasingly hostile tones of voice being used about military drills in the South China Sea.
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