Rabobank Food & Agri Research - All Sectors https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/rss/rss-all-sectors.html All sectors feed for Food & Agri Research en <![CDATA[Podcast: Olho no Mercado | Leite | 29/09/2020]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/podcast-olho-no-mercado-leite.html?utm_medium=RSS O setor lácteo brasileiro deverá enfrentar dois desafíos no final de 2020 e inicio de 2021: o fim do auxílio emergencial que sustentou a demanda em 2020 durante a pandemia, e o custo de produção persistentemente elevado no campo por causa da ração animal. Em quanto isso o mercado internacional pode apresentar alguma queda de preços com demanda global levemente menor e oferta crescente.

Ouça o podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

rabocasts-badge.png

Análises do agronegócio em movimento

A melhor maneira de ouvir podcasts do RaboResearch é no seu smartphone. Assine nosso canal para ficar atualizado sobre os principais acontecimentos do agronegócio brasileiro.

Use os botões acima para ver nosso canal no aplicativo de podcasts da sua escolha.

Como ouvir os podcasts do Rabobank]]>
Dairy Thu, 01 Oct 2020 19:50:39 GMT 269402
<![CDATA[Podcast: Racking up the Australian and New Zealand Lamb Industries]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/podcast-racking-up-the-australian-and-new-zealand-lamb-industries.html?utm_medium=RSS Blake Holgate and Angus Gidley-Baird look at some of the key factors driving the Australian and New Zealand lamb market at the moment and what they might mean for the coming months ahead.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

How to listen to Rabobank podcasts]]>
Animal Protein Thu, 01 Oct 2020 18:52:50 GMT 269398
<![CDATA[USDA Reports: Slim Stocks Shock]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/agri-commodity-markets/usda_reports_slim_stocks_shock.html?utm_medium=RSS Rabobank’s price outlook based on the USDA’s September Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports.

]]>
Agri Commodity Markets Wed, 30 Sep 2020 20:26:06 GMT 269389
<![CDATA[Palm’s Perfect Storm: Biodiesel Mandates and Slow Replanting to Tighten Global Palm Oil Supplies Over the Next Decade]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/grains-oilseeds/palms-perfect-storm.html?utm_medium=RSS Rabobank expects the combination of rising global food demand, increases in Indonesia’s and Malaysia’s biodiesel mandates, and inadequate oil palm replanting in recent years will constrain future supplies and amplify the global palm oil deficit post-2025.

Large-scale oil palm replanting in Indonesia and Malaysia, especially in smallholder plantations, is needed to prevent declining palm oil yields in the future and to meet global vegetable oil demand. If such replanting is quickly introduced, the resulting additional supplies would largely become available from 2025 and could limit future global palm oil deficits.

“In our 2018 report, we highlighted the importance of replanting in Indonesia and Malaysia to increase future global palm oil production,” says Oscar Tjakra, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds. “Since then, few developments that would change our previous forecasts of tightening global supplies have occurred.”

The main impact of the current situation is:
- Palm oil importers to struggle to find needed volumes post 2025, while palm plantations to benefit from strong prices.
- Other oilseed industries to benefit from strong vegetable oil demand to partially fill the gap between shrinking palm oil production and long-term rising global vegetable oil needs.
- Stakeholders in vegetable oil industries need to develop long-term strategies.

]]>
Grains & Oilseeds Wed, 30 Sep 2020 18:45:36 GMT 269383
<![CDATA[Weekly Commodity Snapshot]]> https://research.rabobank.com?utm_medium=RSS Our overview for wheat, corn, soybean, & coffee prices, published weekly.

Report highlights

- The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index fell -1.5% last week on reports of new US export sales to China beginning to ebb from the previous week’s torrent. Harvest pressure is beginning to mount for US corn and soybeans, while weather risks keep coffee prices elevated.

- CBOT Corn fell -1.9% last week, as China failed to entertain the bulls, and WASDE’s +2.5bn bushels of 2020/21 carry-out feels eminently comfortable, bloated even. Ethanol demand is stuck in low gear, as the US moves out of the summer driving season and the US harvest is about one-fourth complete. Will China retake the buying reins after the holiday?

- ICE Arabica was little moved last week after its impressive decline the week before. Prices appear to have stabilized, as the market weighs the prospect of bloated warehouse stocks in Brazil entering the market against a mixed start to flowering for the upcoming season.

]]>
Agri Commodity Markets Wed, 30 Sep 2020 17:10:02 GMT 264418
<![CDATA[Flattening Blueberry Prices Shift Industry Paradigm: Adjust Your Strategy]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/fresh-produce/flattening-blueberry-prices-shift-industry-paradigm.html?utm_medium=RSS Not long ago, being able to supply fresh blueberries during the shoulders of the season, when availability was lower, used to translate into higher prices and attractive returns. As the industry is changing, and year-round availability is more consistent, simply focusing on supplying commodity blueberries may not be enough.

Report summary

Blueberry consumption rates in the US have been among the fastest growing in the fruit space. The prominent product attributes, such as healthfulness, convenience, and taste, have the potential to attract more consumers to purchase blueberries on a regular basis. 

But, the increase in US demand has been outpaced by the supply growth in some seasons. As year-round availability becomes steadier and competition among producing regions increases, continued growth of overall demand becomes increasingly critical for the entire industry.

“As our price estimates show, growers should expect downward price pressure to continue at the (waning) shoulders of the season,” according to David Magaña, Senior Analyst – Fresh Produce. “As the blueberry industry is experiencing a paradigm shift toward consistent quality, growers and companies will need to adjust their strategies to the new normal, focusing on product differentiation/’de-commoditization’ and strategic partnerships/acquisitions.”  

]]>
Fresh Produce Wed, 30 Sep 2020 10:02:54 GMT 269326
<![CDATA[Podcast: Bodemindex geeft kwaliteit van de bodem weer]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/Podcast-bodemindex.html?utm_medium=RSS Rabobank, Vitens en ASR werken samen aan één indicator voor de bodemkwaliteit. Harry Smit doet uit de doeken waarom deze partijen daar belang bij hebben en hoe het ook grondgebruikers in het algemeen kan helpen in hun bedrijfsvoering.

Luister naar de podcast]]>
Farm Inputs Tue, 29 Sep 2020 18:39:48 GMT 269361
<![CDATA[Podcast: Antecipação da compra de insumos e a proteção da margem]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/Podcast-antecipacao-da-compra-de-insumos.html?utm_medium=RSS As boas relações de troca de fertilizantes com algumas commodities agrícolas estão trazendo produtores mais cedo para o mercado de fertilizantes. Nesse episódio, os analistas do setor de pesquisa do Rabobank, Matheus Almeida e Victor Ikeda, juntamente com o Head da mesa de trading José Caixeta Jr., conversam sobre algumas estratégias e ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas pelo produtor para mitigar os riscos envolvidos na antecipação das compras dos insumos.

Ouça o podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

rabocasts-badge.png

Análises do agronegócio em movimento

A melhor maneira de ouvir podcasts do RaboResearch é no seu smartphone. Assine nosso canal para ficar atualizado sobre os principais acontecimentos do agronegócio brasileiro.

Use os botões acima para ver nosso canal no aplicativo de podcasts da sua escolha.

Como ouvir os podcasts do Rabobank]]>
Farm Inputs Mon, 28 Sep 2020 21:27:10 GMT 269341
<![CDATA[Commitment of Traders Weekly Update]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/agri-commodity-markets/cftc-cot.html?utm_medium=RSS Every Monday, we publish a view using data from the Commitment of Traders report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

]]>
Agri Commodity Markets Mon, 28 Sep 2020 20:52:18 GMT 260296
<![CDATA[China Declares War on Waste in Food Catering, Potentially Saving G&O]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/grains-oilseeds/china-declares-war-on-waste-in-food-catering-potentially-saving-go.html?utm_medium=RSS Ongoing anti-food waste campaigns in China aim to reduce food loss in catering. Although China seems to have no immediate worries about food shortage, the coronavirus pandemic, the geopolitical turmoil, and the escalating trade tensions with leading exporters have the potential to restrict China’s access to edible oil and protein meals. China is highly dependent on these imports, often in the form of oilseeds, which are then domestically processed.

Based on Rabobank’s analysis, eliminating waste in food catering (including restaurants, group dining and food deliveries) could make up to 5% of the nation’s soybean imports (5m metric tons) and 6% of the palm oil imports (0.4m metric tons) unnecessary. In addition, 10m metric tons of feed grains, mostly corn, could also be ‘saved’ this way. As China’s corn is experiencing supply shortfalls and depleting stocks, to some extent it could help narrow the deficit and lower import needs.

Food waste in food catering only represents a small proportion of total food losses. A broader food loss reduction along the food chain will increase food security, reduce environmental impacts and ultimately form a more sustainable food system.

China Reiterates Aim to Reduce Food Loss Amid Pandemic and Political Conflict

Food security is always a top priority of the Chinese government. The nation is striving to achieve self-sufficiency in staple food grains. Large quantities of wheat and paddy rice are stored in the state reserve, probably equivalent to one-year’s need. Yet the Chinese government still emphasizes the urgency of reducing food loss, given the nation’s large population to feed and its scarcity in natural resources. After all, waste of food is also wasting water, land, energy and other resources. President Xi’s national anti-food waste campaign, targeted at food catering, attracts increasing attention and enhances Chinese citizens’ sense of ‘food security’.

President Xi’s reiteration of food security might also be associated with the coronavirus pandemic, the geopolitical turmoil and the US-China trade tensions. The coronavirus pandemic could jeopardize food security in importing countries, amid port lockdowns and trade restrictions. China heavily depends on imports of oilseeds for its edible oil and protein meal supplies, which could also face strains. In addition, political tensions threaten trade flows and the risk of a further deterioration of the US-China trade relationship should not be ruled out. Trade disputes with Canada and Australia could also be prolonged and escalate further. The US, Canada and Australia are all major agriculture trade partners, exporting grains and oilseeds to China.

shutterstock_261495491_China_Food_Fig1
Source: China Customs 2020

Facing increasing uncertainties, the Chinese government is expected to prepare for a theoretical worst-case scenario. On the supply side, China might diversify import origins, boost domestic production and establish higher buffer stocks. Due to continued urbanization, China has limited potential to expand planted acreage. And frequent occurrences of adverse weather, such as drought, flooding, typhoons and early frost, could lead to yield volatility and loss. Thus, reducing food waste on the consumption side becomes one of the solutions for enhancing food security.

Millions of Metric Tons of Grains and Oilseeds Could Be Saved By Reducing Food Loss

The ongoing anti-food waste campaign mostly targets the food catering channel. Traditionally, in China, hosts tend to over-order food, to show generosity to guests. An average of 11.7% of food served is wasted, based on a study co-authored by the Chinese Academy of Science and the World Wildlife Fund. For business banquets, social gatherings and school canteens, the waste rates even exceed 30%.

A portion of the food waste of dining-out is edible oil and animal protein. In China, food catering accounts for 40% of edible oil consumption. Animal proteins make up between 35% and 65%. White-feather broiler and beef make up an estimated 55% to 65% of food catering, with pork and yellow-feather broiler at 35% to 45%. Using 11.7% as the reference waste rate and standard feed formulas, Rabobank converted the wasted animal protein into feed grains and protein meals, along with the wasted food grains and edible oil.

shutterstock_261495491_China_Food_table1
Note: Energy grains refer to corn and other feed grains; protein meals refer to soymeal, and other protein sources
Source: Rabobank 2020
What’s the Impact of a ‘No-Waste Scenario’?

Eliminating food loss in food catering could reduce the use of 5m metric tons of protein meals, of which 80% are soymeal, and 1.7m metric tons is edible oil, of which 60% are soy oil. The savings of soymeal and soy oil would be equal to 5m metric tons of imported soybeans, or lowering 5% of the nation’s imports. Meanwhile, roughly 0.4m metric tons of palm oil, or 6% of the annual imports, could be saved.

As for grains, potential savings in food grains will be negligible at 7m metric tons, or less than 3% of annual consumption. Besides, 10m metric tons (5%) of China’s feed grain use, mostly corn, could also be spared. As China’s corn is experiencing a big deficit and low inventories, the savings could help narrow the supply-demand gap and lower future import needs to some extent.

Lastly, food waste in food catering only accounts for a small share of China’s total food losses. Besides food catering and household consumption, massive food losses also take place in the harvest, storage, transportation, processing and retail stages, requiring a more efficient supply chain. The current campaign advocates a change in the social behaviors relating to frugality, but over time, China’s food value chain will need to improve and streamline to be more sustainable in both production and consumption patterns, i.e. increased food security, better resource efficiency, alleviating environmental pressures and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Download-with-margin-1280px.png]]>
Grains & Oilseeds Animal Protein Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:55:15 GMT 269301
<![CDATA[Podcast: Oil Heats Up, and Farmers Get Cooking]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/agri-commodity-markets/podcast-oil-heats-up-and-farmers-get-cooking.html?utm_medium=RSS Vegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank’s Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and their price outlooks on the podcast.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

How to listen to Rabobank podcasts]]>
Grains & Oilseeds Agri Commodity Markets Fri, 25 Sep 2020 16:37:33 GMT 269313
<![CDATA[Podcast: The Race for White Space]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/beverages/podcast-the-race-for-white-space.html?utm_medium=RSS Thirsty for growth, beverage companies are shrugging off the yoke of tradition in search of greener pastures. Whether invading adjacent categories or creating new ones, big companies are pouring investment into new spaces where their skills and distribution offer them a distinct advantage. In this episode, we take a look at these ‘white spaces’ from four different angles.

Listen Now

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

What better way to listen to RaboResearch podcasts than on the go? Subscribe to our channels now to receive all of the latest updates the minute we publish them. Just click on any of the buttons above to get started.

How to Listen to Rabobank Podcasts]]>
Beverages Fri, 25 Sep 2020 12:38:25 GMT 269295
<![CDATA[Podcast: An Off-Premise Future for Foodservice]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/consumer-foods/podcast-an-off-premise-future-for-foodservice.html?utm_medium=RSS Cloud, dark, and ghost kitchens are a hot topic in foodservice boardrooms worldwide. Umesh Madhavan talks to Nicholas Mah, Asia-Pacific Regional Managing Director at Wingstop. How have his company’s experiences been so far? And what is his take on the future of foodservice and off-premise consumption in Southeast Asia?

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

Read the full report

Click here to read the full report "Cloud (Kitchens) on the Horizon: Implications for Foodservice Operators in India and Southeast Asia"

How to listen to Rabobank podcasts]]>
Consumer Foods Thu, 24 Sep 2020 17:56:34 GMT 269282
<![CDATA[Podcast: Ghost Kitchens in India and Southeast Asia Explained]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/consumer-foods/podcast-ghost-kitchens-in-india-and-southeast-asia-explained.html?utm_medium=RSS In the last few years, a lot of money has flowed into ghost kitchens across the globe. Interestingly, India and Southeast Asia have been leading the charge, with, for example, the number of ghost kitchens in India growing from 200 to 1,500 in 2019. In this episode, Cyrille Filott and Maria Castroviejo quiz Rabobank’s Umesh Madhavan on the growth of ghost kitchens. They talk about the flexibility of the model and how companies operate to find growth quickly. However, margins could be under pressure for the foodservice industry as a whole, and companies that have huge scale may be the winners.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

Read the full report

Click here to read the full report "Cloud (Kitchens) on the Horizon: Implications for Foodservice Operators in India and Southeast Asia"

Listen on your Phone

What better way to listen to RaboResearch podcasts than on the go? Subscribe to our channels now to receive all of the latest updates the minute we publish them. Just tap one of the buttons above on your phone to get started, or watch the video below for a how-to.

How to Listen to Podcasts]]>
Consumer Foods Thu, 24 Sep 2020 17:54:11 GMT 269288
<![CDATA[Podcast: Has the Drinking-Milk Category Become a Covid Cash Cow?]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/dairy/podcast-has-the-drinking-milk-category-become-a-covid-cash-cow.html?utm_medium=RSS Tim Hunt and Michael Harvey join up during lockdown to take a close look as to how the drinking-milk market has performed during the global pandemic.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

How to listen to Rabobank podcasts]]>
Dairy Thu, 24 Sep 2020 16:37:46 GMT 269273
<![CDATA[Sugar Quarterly Q3 2020]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/sugar/sugar-quarterly-q3-2020.html?utm_medium=RSS Rabobank’s short-term outlook rests on two major factors: 1) worldwide cane and beet harvests in Q4 2020, and 2) the significant role demand could play in Q4 2020, if and when pandemic-driven consumption declines appear in trade.

“Revisions that have lowered our 2019/20 deficit and created a small 2020/21 global sugar surplus point to a well-supplied market in the coming 12 months. In turn, this suggests that raw sugar prices will continue trading in a USc 11/lb to USc 13/lb range – constrained to the downside by Brazil’s ethanol parity and to the upside by India’s export parity,” according to Andy Duff, Global Strategist – Sugar.

“Still, there remain opportunities – Rabobank notes the expectations for an elevated white premium and a generous Far East premium. These stem primarily from a sharp fall in 2020/21 Thai exports and spell better prospects for global refineries and Asia-focused exporters alike.”

Broader market sentiment in FX, equities, and commodity markets will continue to drive volatility, particularly if/when they adjust the 2020/21 incentives for Brazilian millers. Furthermore, the emerging popularity of ag commodities among speculators and index funds adds a fresh dynamic to the global outlook.

Download previous editions

Click here to download the Sugar Quarterly Q2 2020

Click here to download the Sugar Quarterly Q1 2020

Click here to download the Sugar Quarterly Q4 2019

]]>
Sugar Thu, 24 Sep 2020 14:55:39 GMT 269260
<![CDATA[Podcast: Australian Dairy: Taking Comfort in a Stable Market Outlook]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/dairy/podcast_australian-dairy-stable-market-outlook.html?utm_medium=RSS There have been some major challenges thrown at Australian dairy in recent times. Tim Hunt and Michael Harvey take a look at what 2020 holds for the sector.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

Listen on your phone

What better way to listen to RaboResearch podcasts than on the go? Subscribe to our channels now to receive all of the latest updates the minute we publish them. Just click on any of the buttons above to get started.

]]>
Dairy Wed, 23 Sep 2020 15:24:55 GMT 264362
<![CDATA[Agri Commodity Markets Monthly September 2020: China's Great Food Wall – Made in USA ]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/agri-commodity-markets/ACMR-Monthly-september-2020.html?utm_medium=RSS With an end to summer and amid a second Covid-19 wave in Europe, ag commodity prices took a breather, after ferocious interest from speculators, a weak US dollar, and a torrent of Chinese G&O buying. This month, Chinese buying prompted CBOT G&O prices to reach some of the highest levels in more than two years, despite the incoming US corn and soybean harvests. Weather has been mixed across the globe, as La Niña may cause South American dryness, negatively impacting G&O crops in the region heading into next year. It might also cause wetter-than-normal weather in Australia, aiding the wheat crop recovery. Meanwhile, ICE Arabica has dropped 15% so far in September, as prices correct down to more fundamental levels and realize a record crop in Brazil, while cocoa markets are still digesting the election risk in Côte d’Ivoire.

Download previous editions

Click here to download the Agri Commodities Monthly August 2020

Click here to download the Agri Commodities Monthly July 2020

Click here to download the Agri Commodities Monthly June 2020

Click here to download the Agri Commodities Monthly May 2020

Click here to download the Agri Commodities Monthly April 2020

Click here to download the Agri Commodities Monthly March 2020 

]]>
Agri Commodity Markets Agri Commodity Markets Wed, 23 Sep 2020 12:14:55 GMT 269266
<![CDATA[Podcast: Global Dairy Markets – A Delicate Rebalancing]]> https://research.rabobank.com?utm_medium=RSS Michael Harvey welcomes back Emma Higgins to talk through the latest analysis and views on a volatile and uncertain outlook for the global dairy market.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

How to listen to Rabobank podcasts]]>
Dairy Wed, 23 Sep 2020 11:30:38 GMT 269248
<![CDATA[Recovered Paper and Pulp World Map 2020: A New Round of Transition in the Global RCP Trade – All Driven by China]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/fa-supply-chains/Recovered-Paper-and-Pulp-World-Map-2020-part-one.html?utm_medium=RSS Over the past 20 years, China has proven its massive influence on the global recovered paper (RCP) market. Driven by China’s supply/demand imbalances, the RCP market has undergone a gradual transition, from being a rather local product to a global commodity. As a result, global trade in RCP increased by a CAGR of 8.5% between 2000 and 2012. Exports to China accounted for about half of trade volumes.

Report summary

Between 2012 and 2019, changes in China’s RCP import policies initiated a new round of transition. This resulted in a gradual decline in global trade, which accelerated after the introduction of major restrictions in 2016. A redirection of exports away from China to India and Southeast Asia, and the emergence of recycled pulp imports to China also arose from this transition.

“There are currently no grounds for global RCP trade growth. For the main RCP exporters like the US and Europe, China’s import restrictions have implied that much RCP export tonnage will now stay in the regions. This – in combination with marginal RCP supply challenges owing to Covid-19 and the increasing commitments to sustainability globally – continue to challenge players across the paper packaging supply chain to look for new local strategic solutions,” according to Natasha Valeeva – F&A Supply Chains Senior Analyst.

]]>
F&A Supply Chains F&A Supply Chains Mon, 21 Sep 2020 15:46:31 GMT 269136
<![CDATA[Recovered Paper and Pulp World Map 2020: Pressure in an Era of Slower Demand Growth]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/fa-supply-chains/Recovered-Paper-and-Pulp-World-Map-2020-part-two.html?utm_medium=RSS The main pulp trade flows, as presented in Rabobank’s fiber map, are occurring from west to east, with the Americas supplying Asia and parts of Europe.

Report summary

China has proved essential to global pulp demand growth over the past twenty years, with the rest of the world combined stagnant over the same period, as growth in other emerging markets has been largely offset by declines in developed economies. Southern hemisphere hardwood pulp producers continue to gain competitiveness in a rather weak market environment due to large, new, more cost-efficient mills and weaker currencies. Meanwhile, North America has lost capacity in both bleached hardwood kraft and bleached softwood kraft over the past two decades, with higher costs leading to conversions and closures of mills.

“The Covid-19 crisis has accelerated some consumer trends that are very relevant to the global pulp market and will help shape pulp consumption in the coming years. However, slower demand growth is likely, with big changes in consumer markets,” according to Andrés Padilla – F&A Supply Chains, Beverages, and Dairy Senior Analyst.

An era of slower demand growth following the pandemic, together with new supply additions in cost-efficient countries, signals further pain for high-cost producers in the northern hemisphere.

]]>
F&A Supply Chains F&A Supply Chains Mon, 21 Sep 2020 15:18:58 GMT 269138
<![CDATA[Poultry Quarterly Q4 2020: The challenge of balancing volatile markets]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/animal-protein/poultry-quarterly-q4-2020.html?utm_medium=RSS Moving through Q4 2020 and into 2021, the global poultry industry will operate in a volatile market context, with pressure coming from foodservice and wholesale markets. Possible new waves of Covid-19 will add to the market ups and downs, and the impact of a deep economic crisis will make markets more price-driven.

Report summary

“Over the whole year, we expect a slight increase in global poultry production, mostly as a result of poultry expansion in China and Vietnam, where African swine fever has reduced pork availability, and also from expansion in the US. The rest of the world will be operating in an environment of shrinking production,” according to Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein.

Global trade has become difficult, with most import markets reducing volumes. Trade into ASF-affected markets like China, the Philippines, and Vietnam has become more important, and this raises risks as local production recovers. Exporters like Brazil, the US, and Russia are focused on China, with export volumes expanding quickly, but with price concessions.

The key challenge for producers in such volatile markets is to balance supply and demand, and the experience so far this year shows how difficult this is.

Download previous editions

Click here to download the Poultry Quarterly Q3 2020

Click here to download the Poultry Quarterly Q2 2020

Click here to download the Poultry Quarterly Q1 2020

]]>
Animal Protein Animal Protein Mon, 21 Sep 2020 15:18:41 GMT 269174
<![CDATA[Global Dairy Quarterly Q3 2020: A Delicate Rebalancing]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/dairy/dairy-quarterly-q3-2020.html?utm_medium=RSS Milk production growth across the major export engines will continue expanding into 2021, a feat not matched since 2018. Despite the disruptions Covid-19 brought to global dairy markets, farmgate milk prices have been resilient. A 1.3% YOY increase in production is expected across the big-7 dairy regions in Q4 2020, a 1.0% in 1H 2021, and 0.8% in 2H 2021.

Commodity prices rallied in Q2, largely on the back of government support. However, the outlook for government support is less certain in Q4 and into 2021, elevating the risk of downward price pressure.

“We observe sequential improvements in foodservice, as more regions have come out of lockdown, while retail dairy sales show early signs of deceleration. It will take time for foodservice demand to return to pre-Covid-19 levels, even for countries that have been well ahead of the curve,” according to Sandy Chen, Senior Analyst – Dairy at Rabobank.

Rabobank expects global market fundamentals to remain weak into Q2 2021, at which point the level of exportable surplus retreats in 2H 2021, as domestic consumption improves.

Download previous editions

Click here to download the Dairy Quarterly Q2 2020

Click here to download the Dairy Quarterly Q1 2020

Click here to download the Dairy Quarterly Q4 2019

]]>
Dairy Mon, 21 Sep 2020 07:35:12 GMT 269180
<![CDATA[Podcast: What’s up With AU Wheat Prices for 2020/21?]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/podcast-what-s-up-with-au-wheat-prices-for-2020-21.html?utm_medium=RSS A significant fall in CBOT Wheat prices in early August was followed by a strong rally higher. What was behind the volatility, and what do we expect for wheat prices in Australia for 2020/21? RaboResearch analysts Charlie Clack and Cheryl Kalisch Gordon discuss this volatility ahead of a significant recovery in Australian wheat production in the coming months.

Listen to the podcast

badge-apple.png badge-google.png badge-spotify.png badge-libsyn.png badge-stitcher.png

How to listen to Rabobank podcasts]]>
Grains & Oilseeds Mon, 21 Sep 2020 07:32:03 GMT 269210
<![CDATA[Weekly Commodity Forward Curves Overview]]> https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/weekly-commodity-forward-curves-overview.html?utm_medium=RSS Our weekly overview of forward curves for wheat, corn, oats, soybean, rapeseed, canola, palm oil, sugar, coffee, hogs, cattle, oil, gas, and ethanol.

]]>
Grains & Oilseeds Sugar Agri Commodity Markets Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:59:41 GMT 248031