Agri Commodity Markets Research February 2023: The Bear in NOAA’s Ark

Agri commodity prices remain largely unchanged so far in February. The US dollar regained some strength, and farmers’ margins and planting prospects improved on falling energy and fertilizer prices. Furthermore, wheat fell on strong exports out of Russia. However, a number of specific fundamental factors helped support some commodities: Palm oil (+12%), coffee (+8%), and cocoa (+6%) were the star performers. Next to a strong US dollar and weak demand, the fact that NOAA’s weather models predict the end of La Niña in the coming month or two makes for a bearish outlook across major agri commodities.