Agri Commodity Markets Research March 2021: Seeds of Doubt
The long price surge in Agri commodities markets subsided last month, as la Niña weather worries eased and South American crop advances pushed frenzied speculators to catch their breath. Wary consumers start to think of the most consequential US summer harvest in the last eight years. Then, as now, high US acreage and inputs will be no panacea; corn and soy must also yield well to keep corn and soy stocks from falling into scarcity. The high bar for supply reflation is even more daunting if one considers the low US corn and soy yields of past two years and the tail risks from late planting in South America. We expect prices to remain elevated for G&O, with large moves to the upside following minor weather impact.