Agri Commodity Markets Research May 2022: Tightening the Belt

Bread sits at the head of the table again this month. So far in May, CBOT Wheat prices have risen 8%, on the back of ongoing Ukraine export constraints, adverse US and EU weather, India’s export ban, and the WASDE report, which confirmed market expectations for a steep wheat deficit in the coming 2022/23 season. Given that a lasting Ukraine conflict is now priced in, La Niña models are trending more neutral, and demand for a number of commodities is in check (animal feed grains and oilseeds, dairy, cocoa, coffee, and even sugar), our stance on commodity prices is not as bullish as in previous reports.