Agri Commodity Markets Research April 2024: A robust rally

The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index has increased 2% in April, despite US dollar strength (+0.8%). For softs, the monstrous rallies in arabica (+20.4%), robusta (+23.5%), and London cocoa (+18.4%) offset losses in sugar (-14.2%). ICE Robusta rallied as recent and forecast dry weather in Vietnam raised additional concerns on top of already low stocks and the Red Sea crisis. The ICE Arabica rally seems to be largely driven by robusta’s improvement and exacerbated by fund buying. Cocoa had another impressive month amid stable Q1 grind data. For grains and oilseeds, CBOT Wheat rallied 7.3% as Russian attacks on the port of Odessa and weather concerns in Europe pushed prices higher. Corn (+0.7%) saw US acreage cuts and Argentine leafhopper disease, while soybeans witnessed a 2.3% decline amid rising US acreage. CBOT Soy Oil weakened on the back of concerns about vegetable oil demand and strong US crush, which encouraged heavy short sales.