Agri Commodity Markets Research August 2023: El Niño Starts To Play

​The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index is finishing August 2% lower MOM, reaching two-year lows. Grains led the decline, with wheat and corn futures both markedly down. Sizable US grain acreage following the largest annual increase in seven years, a record Brazilian corn harvest, and the continuation of significant wheat export flows from the Black Sea combined to drive prices lower. However, weather risks remain high for sugar, cocoa, robusta coffee, and Australian wheat, as El Niño’s effects become more apparent. India in particular has been getting quite dry, providing quite a lot of support for sugar. As El Niño strengthens toward the turn of the year, speculators on sugar, cocoa, and robusta coffee might stick around for a while.​