Agri Commodity Markets Research March 2024: Easter hedge

In March, the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index rose 1.9% MOM. Likely, the index would have moved higher if not for US dollar strength (+0.8% MOM). For grains & oilseeds, most markets found support, with funds covering some of their mammoth net short position. The high probability of a return to La Niña in 2H 2024, the approaching (and usually volatile) US corn planting season, Black Sea escalation, and higher Chinese soy imports provide upside risk. For softs, one commodity, once again, stole the show this month: Both the New York and London cocoa contracts have rallied over 50% MOM as supply-side fears sent prices into uncharted territories. Our view is that cocoa prices will stay higher for longer, as systemic barriers to West African resupply will keep the market extremely tight next season. Elsewhere, ICE Robusta futures (15% MOM) recorded a very strong month, as ongoing Red Sea uncertainty and a tight stock situation pushed prices to an all-time high.

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  • Carlos Mera

    Head of Agri Commodities Markets
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  • Michael Magdovitz

    Senior Commodity Analyst
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  • Paul Joules

    Commodities Analyst
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