ACMR Monthly August 2019: CBOT Weather Premium Popped!
The agri commodity complex lost around -8% MOM as the weather premium in G&O popped, while the USDA committed to its large estimates for US corn acreage and yield. Positive US crop tour results, good weather, a strong USD, and heavy global supply are all weighing on markets. Also, the BRL fell to its lowest since September 2018 (-8% MOM), dragging down coffee and sugar. Other producing-country currencies weakened against the USD, with the ARS down a remarkable -28% MOM. A potential government change in Argentina could result in higher export taxes from December 2019.