ACMR Monthly August 2019: CBOT Weather Premium Popped!

The agri commodity complex lost around -8% MOM as the weather premium in G&O popped, while the USDA committed to its large estimates for US corn acreage and yield. Positive US crop tour results, good weather, a strong USD, and heavy global supply are all weighing on markets. Also, the BRL fell to its lowest since September 2018 (-8% MOM), dragging down coffee and sugar. Other producing-country currencies weakened against the USD, with the ARS down a remarkable -28% MOM. A potential government change in Argentina could result in higher export taxes from December 2019.

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  • Stefan Vogel

    Global Strategist - Grains & Oilseeds; Head of Agri Commodity Markets
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  • Michael Magdovitz

    Commodity Analyst
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  • Carlos Mera

    Senior Analyst - Agri Commodity Markets
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