June WASDE: USDA Can't Feel the Heat
We’ve just released our take on the USDA’s June 2021 WASDE report. Here are the main highlights: The USDA used the latest WASDE to tiptoe around the rampant heatwave afflicting Brazil and the US, offering cosmetic changes to corn and soybean balance sheets. The benign forecast for the year ahead of gently reflating stocks belies the likely lower stocks ahead on grains and oilseeds and extremely low margin for error. 2021/22 is likely to see ending stocks among corn and soybeans near 1bn bu and 100m bu respectively, which is why we’ve seen prices moving out of reach of some consumers. The USDA has said all will be well, but good yields may be well out of reach. The US is hot and dry in key expansion areas of North and South Dakota and even across the Midwest. The dryness risks are rising as the window for yields steadily closes.