January WASDE, Stocks and Seedings Reports: New Year's Resolution - Diet

We’ve just released our take on the USDA’s January 2022 WASDE report.

Report highlights

Soybeans – Neutral – The US 2021/22 ending stocks rise masks South American supply issues. 

• US December 2021 soy stocks came in at 3,149m bu, roughly in line with expectations. The USDA raised US 2021/22 production and ending stocks 10m bu, with the latter now 350m bu.

• South American exporters 2021/22 soy production was dropped by 9.5m mt (-4.5%) MOM, and yet exports were only lowered -1.6m mt MOM. The eventual cuts to both will be far higher.

Corn – neutral – US 21/22 acreage and ending stocks raised, but demand is likely understated.
• US December stocks came in at 11,647m bu, 40mbu above expectations. US harvested acreage was raised to reflect higher production, demand cuts in exports offset a rise in ethanol and carry-out increased 47m bu to 1,540m bu. 
• 2021/22 South American corn production expectations fell 3.5mmt, much less than expected, with no loss to exports. Yet a 2m mt rise in Ukraine production results in 1m mt increased exports.

Wheat – Slightly bearish - after demand reductions (Diet?) result in larger expected ending stocks 

• US 2021/22 global wheat production is increased by 0.8m mt, which combined with a small drop in feed use (-1m mt) and FSI use (-0.8m mt), and despite slight drop in beginning stocks, results in a small increase of global ending stocks vs the last report (+1.8m mt).

• Global exports are reduced by 1.1m mt, largely because of Russia's export quota limits exports from the top exporter.

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