March WASDE: March(ing) on an Empty Stomach
We’ve just released our take on the USDA’s March 2021 Stocks and Plantings reports. Here are the main highlights: With WASDE showing low global ending stocks and adverse weather threatening the great North and South America supply reflation, there is a palpable disappointment among consumers. China’s imports and usage of feed and food commodities have broken records, while the improved pace of vaccination may herald a return of global ex-China demand, including ethanol. Frenetic spring plantings are expected in response to low availability and soaring prices – the prospective plantings report in April will give us a taste of farmer enthusiasm – but acreage limitations could ensure a reflation reminds out of reach until 2022. G&O prices appear buoyed, with 2021/22 resupplies appearing at best keeping pace with demand. In case of a major weather issue, the sharp upside risk for prices could carry profound, enduring consequences for food security.