Brazilian Coffee Monthly

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

- Brazil exported 2.6m bags in May 2021, a drop of 20.3% MOM and 29% YOY. According to Cecafé, the Brazilian exports were impacted by the lower availability of containers and booking (from shipping agents), caused by congestion at many Asian and American ports. Despite the lower volumes in May, from January to May 2021, the exports reached 17.8m bags, 5.1% higher compared to the same period in 2020. Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor the containers’ situation. At the end of May 2021, the spot barter ratio reached 2.75 bags/mt, 2.6% better compared to the previous month. This also represents an improvement of 3% YOY, when the index reached 2.84 bags/mt. The recent increase of coffee prices has been supporting the barter ratio.

- In May 2021, local coffee prices rose to an average of BRL 822/bag (60kg) – another record level –, an increase of 43.2% YOY. In June 2021, coffee prices are at around BRL 875/bag. In the coming weeks, the demand recovery, the situation of Colombian exports, and the high availability of Brazilian 2020/21 coffees (and resulting logistical issues) should keep the market volatile.

- May saw low rainfall levels in key coffee regions. However, the dry period has been favorable for the harvest activities. After a recent survey, Rabobank revised the 2020/21 crop, to 72m bags (53m bags arabica). The 2021/22 season is forecasted at 56.7m bags (36m bags arabica, 32.1% less than 2020/21). The domestic consumption is estimated at 21.4m bags in 2020/21 (1.7% higher than the last cycle). In the coming months, the market will focus not only on the first samples of the 2021/22 harvest, but also the Brazilian weather (looking at the potential for the 2022/23 crop).

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