Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: July 2021

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

• Brazil exported 3.0m bags in June 2021, 13.2% higher MOM but 2.1% lower YOY. From January to June 2021, exports reached 20.9m bags, 4.5% higher compared to the same period in 2020. Despite the recovery, the lower availability of containers and bookings (from shipping agents) still bring concerns for Brazilian exports in the coming months. 

• Despite the high coffee prices, the recent increase of fertilizers prices was reflected in the barter ratio index. At the end of June 2021, the spot barter ratio reached 3.42 bags/ton, 24.3% worse than the previous month. It also represents a worsening of 13.5% YOY, when the index reached 3.02 bags/ton.

• In June 2021, local coffee prices rose to an average of BRL 851/bag (60kg) – another record level –, an increase of 76.1% YOY. However, in July, coffee prices decreased to an average of BRL 837/bag. 

• June saw scattered showers and low temperatures for most coffee producing-regions. The harvest activities advanced slightly below average. In the week of June 28, frost hit Paraná and isolated regions of São Paulo and South of Minas Gerais states. Damage should be limited, but an assessment is expected in the coming weeks.

• The 2021/22 season is forecast at 56.7m bags (36m bags are arabica, 32.1% lower than 2020/21). Looking ahead, the market will focus on the Brazilian weather (looking at the potential for the 2022/23 crop).

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