Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: April 2021

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

- Brazil exported 3.4m bags in March 2021, 12.3% less than the previous month. However, in Q1 2021, exports reached 11m bags, 10.4% higher compared to the same period in 2020. Due to good performance, Brazil has increased its participation at ICE arabica certified stocks, being responsible for almost 50% of total inventory, or 920k bags (on April 14th). Looking ahead, concerns about container availability, combined with the lower Brazilian 2021/22 crop, may have a negative impact on coffee exports from 2H 2021.
- At the end of March 2021, the spot barter ratio reached 3.18 bags/metric ton, 10.1% higher compared to the previous month. This represents an increase of 21.4% YOY, when the index reached 2.62 bags/metric ton. Despite the recent recovery in coffee prices, fertilizer costs have increased.
- In March 2021, local coffee prices rose to an average of BRL 732/bag (60kg) – a new record level –, an increase of 6.8% MOM. In April, coffee prices remain at around BRL 730/bag. In the coming months, uncertainties around supply and demand, the weather in Brazil and the high availability of Brazilian 2020/21 coffees should keep the market volatile.
- After an increase in rains during February, all arabica regions saw a decline in rainfall during March, which should impact the fruit filling stage. The cumulative rainfall for the 2021/22 crop remains below the historical average in most coffee regions. So far, Rabobank projects the 2021/22 crop at 56.2m bags, 36m bags of which are arabica (26.5% lower than 2020/21). The harvest has already started in Rondonia (robusta region). The arabica harvest is expected to begin in early May.