Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: February 2024

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Highlights

  • - Despite the ongoing logistical bottlenecks at the Santos port, Brazil exported 3.9m bags (60kg) of coffee in January. This is not only a record volume for the month, but also represents a 39% YOY increase.
  • - It is worth highlighting the 504% YOY increase in conilon and robusta coffee exports in January. As noted in previous reports, in addition to limited global supply of robusta coffee and the good availability and competitiveness of Brazilian conilon, trade disruptions in the Red Sea have contributed to increased demand for Brazilian conilon.
  • - Looking ahead, Cecafé believes that the continued tensions in the Red Sea and the lack of rain in Central America –which is affecting the flow of goods through the Panama Canal– raise concerns about potential hikes in freight rates and shortages of vessels and containers. It’s important to monitor these developments and their potential impact on the local logistical landscape.
  • - The barter ratio in February is almost unchanged compared to the previous month, requiring 2.2 bags (60 kg) of coffee to purchase 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20). However, it's still 5% lower than in February 2023 (when 2.8 bags of coffee were needed to buy 1 metric ton of fertilizer).
  • - In January, local average prices for arabica and conilon coffee rose by 1.7% and 8% MOM, respectively. February saw this upward trend persist, with arabica coffee prices appreciating by 2.3% MOM and conilon by 4.8%. Despite recent support for prices due to low certified stocks, climate uncertainties, logistical bottlenecks in Brazil, and disruptions in the Red Sea, the anticipation of increased certified stocks in New York and recent rainfall in Brazil is expected to put a cap on prices.
  • - In January, rainfall increased in most coffee-producing regions except Guaxupé. Despite below-average volumes in five out of eight areas (accumulated view), crops remain favorable for a good 2024 harvest. Conilon coffee benefited from high irrigation rates, while arabica areas sustained positive production prospects due to adequate rainfall in 2023 and the current season. Despite the recent rains, February is still below the historical average.

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