Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: January 2022

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

• Brazil exported 3.8m bags in December 2021, an increase of 18.4% MOM but a drop of 14.1% YOY. The ongoing problems of scarcity of containers, booking cancelations and higher freight cost are still limiting Brazilian exports. From January to December 2021, the country exported 40.4m bags, 9.7% lower YOY. According to Cecafé, around 3m bags weren’t exported due to logistical issues in 2021. In addition to the logistic issues, the current off-cycle (in 2021/22) should weigh on Brazilian exports in the coming months. 

• In early January 2022, the spot barter ratio had a slight improvement of 7.6% MOM, at 3.7 bags/ton. However, it still represents a worsening of 38.8% YOY, when the index reached 2.7 bags/ton. In the last weeks, the urea price has decreased which has brought some relief in the barter ratio.

• In December 2021, local coffee prices rose to an average of BRL 1,452/bag (60kg) – another record level – and an increase of 144% YOY. In January, coffee prices are averaging BRL 1,476/bag.

• Since September 2021, despite the higher conilon prices, an increase has been observed in the differentials between arabica higher quality (type 6) and conilon (type 7 and 8). 

• Rains in December were close to the historical average in six out of the eight regions. The current cumulative rainfall has been favourable for crop development in all but one region (Rondonia state). Despite the rainier outlook and the on-cycle output for arabica, the previous weather problems, such as drought and frosts, should limit production in the 2022/23 crop. In January, rainfall continues to fall in most of the coffee-producing regions, which should benefit the fruit filling stage.

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