Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: January 2023

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

• Brazil exported 39.4m bags in 2022, down 3.1% YOY. While green arabica bean exports increased 3.9% YOY, green robusta shipments plunged 60%. High raw material prices and low arabica availability made many local roasters increase the use of robusta in their blends over the last year. Despite the positive performance of leading coffee importers, exports to Asia, Africa, and Arab countries dropped 10.3%, 66%, and 48.1%, respectively.

• In January 2023, the spot barter ratio reached 2.95 bags/ton. This represents an improvement of 4.8% MOM and 7.8% YOY. Despite the decrease in coffee prices, fertilizers prices (mainly for urea and potash) continue to decline. It is worth noting that the index averaged 3.31 bags/ton during 2022.

• In December 2022, local arabica coffee prices averaged BRL 1,012/bag (60kg), 30% lower YOY. In January 2023, the prices declined to an average of BRL 991/bag, down 33% YOY.

• Rainfall in December was above average in all but one anayzed arabica region (Guaxupé/MG). However, the cumulative rainfall for the 2023/24 season remains favorable for crop development. In January, the weather should stay suitable for the fruit filling stage.

• After two frustrating harvests, a recovery is expected for the 2023/24 Brazilian crop. However, uncertainties remain regarding the size of this rebound. Despite the excellent flowering and good rainfall, problems in fruit setting have been reported in some arabica regions, especially in Zona da Mata (east of Minas Gerais). In addition, hailstorms hit some coffee crops in the south and east of Minas Gerais in October and November.

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