Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: January 2024

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Highlights

  • - Brazil exported 39.2m bags (60 kg) of coffee in 2023, almost unchanged from 2022 (-0.4%). Shipments rebounded in 2H 2023 after a slow start. According to Cecafé, the performance could have been up to 2m bags higher if it weren't for logistical challenges at the Santos port (delays in boarding procedures).
  • - Conilon exports excelled, reaching 4.7m bags, a remarkable 212% YOY increase. The demand for Brazilian conilon will amplify in the coming weeks with limitations in the global supply, more attractive prices (in Brazil), and the current incidents in the Red Sea (the main maritime route between Asia and Europe).​
  • - The barter ratio in January slightly worsened, requiring 2.2 bags (60 kg) of coffee to purchase 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20), 5% higher MOM. However, it's still 21% lower than in January 2023 (when 2.8 bags of coffee were needed to buy 1 metric ton of fertilizer).
  • - Local coffee prices remain at high levels. In December, arabica and conilon coffee prices increased by 9.7% and 12.5% MOM, respectively. In January, arabica and conilon grew by 1.1% and 6.4% MOM. In the case of arabica, volatility revolves around the Brazilian weather and low certified stocks (however, the pending quantity for approval continues to rise – as of Jan 24th, it was 54,000 bags). For conilon, prices appreciated due to the growing domestic and global demand, driven by the refusal of Vietnamese producers to sell their coffees, and recent incidents in the Red Sea, crucial for trade between Asia and Europe.
  • - December saw a return of rains in key coffee-producing regions, but the volume remained below historical averages. Concerns are rising, particularly in Espirito Santo state, the largest conilon producer, despite high irrigation rates that mitigate significant production drops.
  • - January weather presented a mixed scenario, with some regions experiencing above-average precipitation and others below. Despite recent rains, accumulated volumes remain below historical averages.

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