Brazilian coffee monthly update: June 2024
Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.
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Highlights
- In May 2024, Brazil saw a significant increase in coffee exports, with a total of 4.4m bags (60kg) exported, a jump of 79.6% YOY and 3.2% MOM. Total exports for the first five months of 2024 reached 20.7m bags, a 52.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
- Once again, it’s worth highlighting the excellent performance of Brazilian conilon exports. In May, 868,000 bags were exported, representing staggering growth of 559% YOY. In 2024, 3.4m bags have been exported so far, a remarkable 554% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
- Brazil’s exceptional export results can be attributed to the good harvest in 2023. Given the forecast of another favorable crop in 2024, the high level of exports is projected to persist in the coming months.
- The barter ratio improved in June, with 1.7 bags (60kg) of coffee needed to purchase 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20). This represents an improvement of 16% YOY and 13% MOM compared to the previous values of 2.1 and 1.9 bags, respectively. Despite the recent surge in fertilizer costs, particularly for urea, the appreciation of coffee prices favored the barter ratio. Fertilizer prices may continue to rise in the next few months due to increased demand, especially with Brazil’s grain planting season approaching.
- Coffee prices in Brazil remain high. In May, arabica coffee prices averaged BRL 1,175 per bag, a 13% YOY increase, while conilon reached an average of BRL 1,006 per bag, up 48% YOY. In June, prices continued to rise, with a 13% MOM increase for arabica and a 21% MOM increase for conilon.
- Despite the start of the Brazilian harvest and the USDA’s estimate of a 5.4% increase in Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee crop to 69.9m bags, concerns about the Vietnamese coffee supply have caused market volatility. Additionally, the increased participation of non-commercial funds in the coffee market has contributed to this volatile environment.
- In May, coffee-producing regions received below-average rainfall, which favored harvesting activities. Harvesting is already underway in robusta/conilon regions and gaining traction in arabica regions. The Zona Mata region (east of Minas Gerais state) is ahead of other areas in terms of progress. There have been reports of coffee with smaller screen sizes, but this is normal in the early stages of the harvest.
