Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: March 2021

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

• Brazil exported 3.3m bags in February 2021, 8.7% lower than the previous month, but it represents an increase of 9% compared to February 2020. It’s worth noting that conilon exports increased 29.3% MOM and 42.7% YOY.    

• At the end of February 2021, the spot barter ratio reached 2.82 bags/metric ton, 3.2% higher than the previous month and 5% higher compared to the same period in 2020, when the index reached 2.69 bags/metric ton. The recent decline in coffee prices, the depreciation of the Brazilian real, and the increase in fertilizer costs should negatively impact the index in the coming weeks. 

• In February 2021, local coffee prices rose to an average of BRL 685/bag (60kg), an increase of 7.1% MOM. In March, coffee prices reached around BRL 741/bag. The depreciation of the Brazilian real has been important to keep local prices at current levels. In the coming months, uncertainties about supply and demand, the weather in Brazil, and the high availability of Brazilian 2020/21 coffees should keep the market volatile.

• Rainfall in February was above average in all but two arabica regions (Guaxupé and Franca). Despite the recent recovery, the cumulative rainfall for the 2021/22 crop remains below the historical average in most of the coffee regions. So far, due to lower rains and the off-cycle year, Rabobank projects the 2021/22 crop at 56.2m bags, of which 36m bags will be arabica. It represents a decline in arabica production of 26.5% compared to 2020/21. For conilons, the situation remains stable, and production is forecasted at 20.2m bags.