Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: October 2023
Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.
Download the full report
- In September 2023, Brazil exported 3.3m coffee bags (60kg), a drop of 10.9% MOM and 5.3% YOY.
- With only 2.4m bags shipped in September, the volume of green arabica coffee shrank by 9.8% MOM and 20.3% YOY. According to Cecafé, in addition to specific logistical issues, low arabica coffee prices and narrow differentials are collectively reducing commercial activity (for both producers and buyers).
- On a positive note, conilon coffee exports are still rising, with 625,000 bags exported in September, representing a 317% increase year-over-year. The main factors driving conilon export growth are 1) limited global robusta supply, 2) more Brazilian conilon available for export given current local market conditions, and 3) Brazilian conilon’s competitive price compared to other regions.
- Despite the recent conflict in Israel, the international fertilizer market remains stable. According to our team, the initial perception that production and export capacity were unaffected maintained market stability. Keeping this in mind, the barter ratio in October remained largely unchanged compared to the previous month or last year, staying at 2.9 coffee bags (60kg) to purchase 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20).
- In September, local arabica and conilon coffee prices decreased by 2% and 1%, respectively, compared to the previous month, according to CEPEA. So far, in October, both coffee prices have declined by 1%. The theoretical stock recovery (considering the recent harvest), optimistic prospects for the next crop, and global demand uncertainties continue to limit coffee prices.
- September saw below-average rainfall in most arabica-producing regions. Despite this, favorable crop conditions lead us to believe that recent rain has sufficiently nourished the coffee trees. Meanwhile, late September and early October rainfall stimulated a fresh wave of flowering. At this point, October has been a rainy month in most coffee-producing regions. However, Espírito Santo and east of Minas Gerais are drier than expected. The following weeks will be important, as continued rainfall is essential to prevent premature flowering termination. Extended dry, hot conditions could potentially decrease the 2024 yield.
