Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update: September 2022

Our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry. Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops.

• Brazil exported 2.8m bags in August 2022, a increase of 10% MOM, but down 2.5% YOY. Despite the current logistical bottlenecks and slower sales pace (from farmers to exporters), green arabica exports are 1.4% up in 2022 YTD. On the other hand, Brazil shipped only 1m bags (60kg) of green robusta in 2022, a drop of 62% YOY. This also represents increased use of robusta by the local industry in its blends.

• In September 2022, the spot barter ratio reached 3.2 bags/ton, the same level as last year and a slight improvement of 1.9% MOM. Despite the recent boost in coffee prices, the increase of urea prices meant there were no further changes in the barter ratio index compared to last month. Given the uncertainties in the natural gas market, urea prices should remain volatile.  

• In August 2022, local coffee prices averaged BRL 1,302/bag (60kg), a decrease of 1.3% MOM, but still 26% higher YOY. In September 2022, coffee prices are averaging BRL 1,317/bag.  

• August was a dry month in most of the coffee-producing regions. Harvesting activities were almost completed, with the drier weather favoring harvest progress and coffee quality. Isolated rains caused early flowering in the Alta Mogiana region (São Paulo state) and south of Minas Gerais. If there is dry weather in the coming weeks, it may cause some yield loss for the 2023/24 crop. Lower-than-expected yields have been reported in the current harvest, especially in the Cerrado Mineiro region. Rabobank reduced its 2022/23 arabica crop forecast to 40.1m bags (from 41.4m bags). The production estimate for Brazilian conilon remains unchanged, at 23.1m bags.

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