Coffee Outlook Q1 2023: Rains and Shipping

We have lowered our projection for 2023/24 supply/demand balance from a 4m-bag surplus to a 1.6m-bag surplus, mainly due to lower output expectations for key producer Brazil. Certified stocks continue to be highly influential in terms of price action – a situation that will likely continue until at least October. Demand weakness is also getting a lot of attention, but for now, demand does not seem to be too disappointing. Roaster destocking must have happened in the last four months. This was to be expected given high interest rates and much more normal container shipping.

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