Coffee Outlook Q2 2022: Iced Demand

At the time of writing, the Brazil arabica coffee belt is facing a cold front that has had an exacerbated price impact. The impact on production is likely negligible, but with a low stock situation in a number of geographies (although not everywhere), any weather issue could have a large price impact. Logistics continue to see some relief from (slowly) declining container prices, but the situation could change as containers pile up at Chinese ports due to the zero Covid-19 policy. On the fundamental side, probably the largest change in the last three months has been the decline in expectations on demand.