Coffee Outlook Q3 2022: Fewer Supplies

We have lowered our global production estimates for the 2022/23 season. The price-led expected increase in production is disappointing for virtually all major producers. This is especially so in countries like Brazil and Colombia, due mainly to meteorological reasons, and in Honduras and Vietnam for more structural reasons. Over the course of 2022, YOY coffee price growth at retail has accelerated, but coffee is quite inelastic and we do not expect any significant drop in volumes. Since we are right in the middle of the impact of commodity price increases – where most has flown through the P&L of roasters up to now – we certainly have not cycled through all of the input cost pressures yet.

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