Coffee Outlook Q3 2023: Transitioning to a Surplus
August 2023
No major changes in global production numbers for 2022/23, but import demand in 1H 2023 has been extremely weak. This is exacerbated by the prospect of a recession in the EU.
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- Retail coffee sales are still down in the US, but coffee shops are doing well.
- The frost period in Brazil is practically over. At the moment, the main risk would be a dry 1H September, which might compromise the early flowering.
- El Niño-related dryness over SE Asia is limited for now, but it provides support for robustas.
