Coffee Outlook Q4 2018: Neutral Market Ahead

Arabica prices have overreacted to the movements in the Brazilian real on the way up, just as prices overreacted on the way down previously this year.

- Current arabica prices – even though they are below cost of production in many countries with strong currencies – should ensure a thorough harvest in Central America.

- We only envisage a small production drop in Brazil 2019/20, with the drop in Arabica output partially offset by a further increase in robustas.

- Private label sales in the US are up by 7%, led by a 10% increase in private label pods.

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  • Carlos Mera

    Senior Analyst - Agri Commodity Markets
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  • James Watson

    Senior Analyst - Beverages
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