Coffee Outlook Q1 2019: Coping With Low Prices

In March, the first contract (currently May 2019) saw the lowest level since 2005, which should result in a drop of mild washed arabica production in the future. The Brazilian harvest will put pressure on the market, as we believe it is larger than expected. A weakening real, at USD/BRL 3.9, combined with the prospect of another bumper crop in 2020/21, should incentivize selling. Given the increase in certified stocks and good Brazilian production, we do not see much price upside at the moment, barring a weather event or currency support.

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  • Carlos Mera

    Senior Analyst - Agri Commodity Markets
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