Weekly Commodity Snapshot
Our overview for wheat, corn, and soy, published weekly.
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- The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index fell 1.1% WOW amid US dollar strength (DXY +0.7% WOW). A rapid clip of Russian and Brazilian sales offset deteriorating US crop conditions. Softs prevented the index from sinking even lower as El Niño concerns provided support for sugar, cocoa, and robusta futures.
- CBOT Wheat dropped 2.9% in the last week, while Matif dropped 2.8%. Russia is, of course, the most bearish factor in the market at present: The continuation of huge Russian exports, high ending stocks, and likely another very strong crop this season are weighing on prices.
- CBOT Corn fell 2% last week to remain stuck near two-year lows of USc 480/bu. Losses came despite a sharp decline in US crop conditions and cuts in funds’ bearish positioning. Dollar strength will help explain some losses, but more likely grain consumers are simply comfortable watching Brazilian corn pile up and aren’t fussed by a 1% further decline in US yields, in what will likely still be the third-largest harvest on record.