May WASDE: Cheap grains in short supply

Rabobank's price outlook based on the USDA's May WASDE.

Wheat – mildly bullish– global stocks seen falling to 9-year low, with Russian output down.

• US 2024/25 wheat production (1858m bu, +46m bu YOY) and ending stocks (766mbu, +78m bu YOY) both rose by slightly less than analyst expectations.

• Internationally, major cuts in cheap Black Sea wheat suppliers like Russia (-3.5mmt) and Ukraine (-2mmt) are partially offset by increases in Australia (+3mmt), Canada (+2mmt), and US (+1.3mmt). Ending stockpiles are seen falling 4.2m tons YOY to 253.6mmt, a 9-year low.

Soybeans – slightly bearish –US and global stockpiles seen rising 31% and 15%, respectively.

• US 2024/25 ending stocks seen at 445m bu, on record 52 bpa yields, despite higher crush and exports.

• Brazil’s 23/24 soy production was cut 1mmt, while its 24/25 production is expected to jump 15m tons. China’s import demand is seen at a record 109mmt (+4m tons), with 3m tons going to pad record stockpiles. Global ending stockpiles are seen rising about 17m tons YOY.

Corn – neutral –US 24/25 ending stockpiles rise by less than expected thanks to strong demand.

• USDA’s increase in US 23/24 corn exports cut ending stockpiles to 2bn bu, and that strength into 2024/25 is expected to limit stockpile growth to 2.1bn bu, lower than expected.

• Global 2023/24 corn stockpiles were cut 6m mt amid losses in South America, and 2024/25 corn ending stockpiles are seen falling about 1m mt. Brazil’s 2024/25 corn production is expected to remain 10m tons below a record, with Ukraine supplies seen falling 4m tons YOY. Still, global stockpiles are stable and about 12% higher than two years ago.

  • Carlos Mera

    Head of Agri Commodities Markets
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  • Michael Magdovitz

    Senior Commodity Analyst
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  • Paul Joules

    Commodities Analyst
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