Global Animal Protein Outlook 2021: Emerging From a World of Uncertainty
After a year full of uncertainties, global animal protein is expected to rise again, as it looks for opportunities.
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In 2021, we anticipate production growth in most regions, with the biggest change taking place in Asia, where the impacts of African swine fever (ASF) are fading. Pork is expected to lead that growth – with a gradual recovery process, as ASF is still active. Poultry and aquaculture are also forecast to grow, followed by beef. Wild-catch seafood, however, is expected to decline.
Global animal protein trade continues to create areas of opportunity and risk, with China being the biggest of many areas of uncertainty in global trade.
Animal protein has been disrupted by Covid-19 in 2020, largely due to restrictions in processing plants, to global trade, and distribution through foodservice channels. In 2021, the focus will be on recovery, with foodservice recovery, labor availability and costs and supply chain transformations being the major issues.
Many other issues affecting global animal protein mean that uncertainty will remain into 2021. These issues include managing higher feed prices and governments’ increasing engagement on animal protein.
These are our key points from the outlook for animal protein in 2021:
We expect production for all species to change only marginally in 2021 – the strongest growth will be for beef, based on post-Covid-19 adjustments. All species will depend on strength in export flows in order to balance domestic demand.
For more on the 2021 outlook for North America, listen to our podcast episode: Room for Optimism in Animal Protein Outlook.
Poultry is expected to return to growth, on foodservice recovery. Pork and beef production is expected to decline, on soft confidence.
The initial recovery from ASF dominates the pork outlook in China, with growth expected in 2021. Poultry will have another strong year, but beef will rise only marginally.
For more on the 2021 outlook for each region in Asia, listen to our podcast episode: Asian Animal Protein Outlook for 2021.
Poultry production is set to recover from a tough year. Pork will recover in Vietnam, but remain constrained in the Philippines; and beef production and consumption will recover after a difficult 2020.
Production growth is expected for all species in 2021, but this will be more modest than in recent years. Exports will drive production, given soft domestic demand.
Australia & New Zealand
Tight livestock inventories in Australia will support prices and constrain production. New Zealand’s production outlook is familiar: a slight rise in beef and slight fall in sheepmeat.
After a year of challenges in 2020, due to Covid-19 impacts on production, processing, trade and consumption, the outlook for major seafood species is for gradual improvement in 2021.
Where to go from here
Justin SherrardGlobal Strategist - Animal Protein Read more
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