Global Animal Protein Outlook 2019 – Growth Slows Down… as Doubts Gear Up

Growth in global animal protein continues, but it is slowing. Uncertainty is a key theme for 2019. Uncertainty created by African swine fever, in trade, and with feed prices all contribute to the slowdown in production. However, global animal protein also has opportunities in 2019, according to the recently released RaboResearch report “Global Animal Protein Outlook 2019 – Growth Slows Down… as Doubts Gear Up”.

Video: Animal Protein Outlook 2019

Video: About the 2019 Agri Commodity Market and Animal Protein Outlooks

Figure: How we see global animal protein in 2019


Report summary

Growth in global animal protein production is expected to slow as we move through 2019, given some obvious areas of uncertainty in trade, biosecurity and the weather. These uncertainties could though swing both towards weaker or strong constraints on production during 2019.

The fundamentals remain supportive of ongoing growth in animal protein. The economic outlook is positive for most of the world, and consumer confidence remains firm. 

To help ensure a successful year ahead, the animal protein supply chain needs to look through the uncertainties. Boosting competitiveness in trade will benefit from strong relationships and reasonable pricing, as well as enhanced biosecurity. Boosting competitiveness in domestic markets will benefit from innovative approaches to production and processing that boost value-adding.

These are our key points for the main global animal-protein producing regions:

North America
We expect strong growth in production, with increases across all species, led by pork. Exports will increase too, while small, total growth in beef exports will lead export growth.

Poultry production is growing, but pork and beef are stable. European exports will grow, and biosecurity will become even more important.

Biosecurity is the top issue for the Chinese animal protein sector, and pork production is down materially as a result. Imports are expected to rise.

Production is growing across all species of the Brazilian animal protein complex. Local economic conditions influence local demand… and could go either way. Exports are expected to increase.

South-East Asia
Poultry leads modest production growth in South-East Asia. Cost pressures are rising, challenging local production and imports.

Australia & New Zealand
Beef and sheepmeat production in Australia & New Zealand will decline. Limited supplies will maintain strong livestock prices, and seasonal conditions dictate growth possibilities.