Animal Protein Outlook 2016
As difficult as it is to summarise what is due to happen in a market which is as diverse as global animal protein, some trends really stand out as characterising the range of opportunities and risks we believe the market will face in 2016.
Protein production, for example, is racing ahead across the Americas but is slowing markedly in Australia and New Zealand. Europe is challenged by overproduction and in Asia the balance between demand and supply has never been more dynamic given the poorly understood impact of the macroeconomic slowdown.
Positive outlook for poultry and seafood
Continuing low feed costs are positive for the sector, and are expected to continue in 2016, helping production growth reach close to average levels. Poultry and seafood appear to be best positioned for growth in 2016—also because of tight beef supply. Aquaculture continues to grow strongly and has overtaken wildcatch as the main source for human consumption.
Headwinds mainly for pork
A slowing in the rate of global growth will create some headwinds for the sector, as will a softening of global business and consumer confidence. Although pork will benefit from the low feed prices, the ongoing slow recovery of trade means that this species, more than others, will face headwinds.
Trend towards consolidation
In terms of business strategies, we see ongoing consolidation that is helping to create some global animal protein ‘giants’. In their quest for growth these companies cover an increasing number of regions and species.
Strengthening the supply chains
A second notable trend is the strengthening and extension of supply chains within the animal protein sector. Most of this activity is a result of processors looking for opportunities to add more value to meat products, although in some cases, supply chain strengthening and extension is a product of processors looking to secure supply. The trend to strengthen supply chains will help the animal protein sector manage external pressures, including currency market fluctuations, animal health issues, human health considerations of animal protein consumption, consumers’ sustainability perceptions, and anti-slavery and animal welfare issues.
Download the full report
Where to go from here
Justin SherrardGlobal Strategist - Animal Protein Read more
RaboResearch Food & AgribusinessPO Box 17100 (UC 053) 3500 HG Utrecht, The Netherlands