Global Animal Protein Outlook 2021: Emerging From a World of Uncertainty

After a year full of uncertainties, global animal protein is expected to rise again, as it looks for opportunities.

Global summary

In 2021, we anticipate production growth in most regions, with the biggest change taking place in Asia, where the impacts of African swine fever (ASF) are fading. Pork is expected to lead that growth – with a gradual recovery process, as ASF is still active. Poultry and aquaculture are also forecast to grow, followed by beef. Wild-catch seafood, however, is expected to decline.

Global animal protein trade continues to create areas of opportunity and risk, with China being the biggest of many areas of uncertainty in global trade.

Animal protein has been disrupted by Covid-19 in 2020, largely due to restrictions in processing plants, to global trade, and distribution through foodservice channels. In 2021, the focus will be on recovery, with foodservice recovery, labor availability and costs and supply chain transformations being the major issues.

Many other issues affecting global animal protein mean that uncertainty will remain into 2021. These issues include managing higher feed prices and governments’ increasing engagement on animal protein.

Regional outlooks

These are our key points from the outlook for animal protein in 2021:

North America

We expect production for all species to change only marginally in 2021 – the strongest growth will be for beef, based on post-Covid-19 adjustments. All species will depend on strength in export flows in order to balance domestic demand.

For more on the 2021 outlook for this region, listen to this podcast episode:

Europe

Poultry is expected to return to growth, on foodservice recovery. Pork and beef production is expected to decline, on soft confidence.

China

The initial recovery from ASF dominates the pork outlook in China, with growth expected in 2021. Poultry will have another strong year, but beef will rise only marginally.

For more on the 2021 outlook for this region, listen to this podcast episode:

Southeast Asia

Poultry production is set to recover from a tough year. Pork will recover in Vietnam, but remain constrained in the Philippines; and beef production and consumption will recover after a difficult 2020.

Brazil

Production growth is expected for all species in 2021, but this will be more modest than in recent years. Exports will drive production, given soft domestic demand.

Australia & New Zealand

Tight livestock inventories in Australia will support prices and constrain production. New Zealand’s production outlook is familiar: a slight rise in beef and slight fall in sheepmeat.

Seafood

After a year of challenges in 2020, due to Covid-19 impacts on production, processing, trade and consumption, the outlook for major seafood species is for gradual improvement in 2021.

  • Justin Sherrard

    Global Strategist - Animal Protein
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  • Nan-Dirk Mulder

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Gorjan Nikolik

    Senior Analyst - Seafood
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  • Beyhan de Jong

    Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Matz Beuchel

    Data Analyst — Animal Protein
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  • Eva Gocsik

    Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Christine McCracken

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Don Close

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Dustin Aherin

    Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Andrick Payen

    Analyst
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  • Wagner Yanaguizawa

    Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Ben Santoso

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Chenjun Pan

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Shiva Mudgil

    Analyst - Dairy
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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  • Blake Holgate

    Analyst - Animal Protein, Sustainability
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