Global Beef Quarterly Q2 2023: The Changing Face of the Argentine Beef Industry
Rabobank expects global beef supply to remain largely steady over the next 12 months, with the increases in Brazil (up 2%) and Australia (up 7%) offset by the declines in the US (down 2%). With production expanding, both Brazil and Australia are relying on an increase in export volumes given domestic consumption remains static or is declining. China has been a key destination market, and with Covid-19 lockdown measures removed in late 2022 this market was considered a growth opportunity. However, we expect Chinese imports to slow in Q2 and potentially decline in Q3 given the slow pace of market recovery.
Download the full report
Declining production volumes and firm demand have seen cattle prices in the US and Canada push into new record territories. This stands in contrast to other beef producing and exporting countries, which have declining or steady cattle prices. The spread between US cattle prices and those in other countries is the largest in the history of Rabobank’s index. We expect it will start to impact trade flows, with a redistribution away from the more expensive US product to cheaper Australian and Brazilian product.
Argentina remains one of the largest producers, consumers, and exporters of beef in the world. But the country’s ongoing economic crisis plus presidential elections, scheduled for October, could change the shape of the industry. With local consumption falling due to high prices, and leading presidential opposition candidates supporting the removal of protectionist measures, like export restrictions, there is a real potential for Argentine beef exports to increase in the years to come.
