Beef Quarterly Q3 2017: Trade Dominates the Beef Agenda
US beef exports are up 11% YOY in volume for the year to July and up 15% YOY in value terms. This highlights the ongoing availability of product for export from the US, as well as challenges in exporting from Australia and Brazil. US beef exports are up for the year to date to Japan (22% YOY), Hong Kong (33% YOY), and Canada (5% YOY).
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Australia has been restricted by availability of beef for export, while the ‘weak flesh’ scandal in Brazil slowed exports of all proteins in 1H 2017. At the same time, the US has recorded stronger-than-expected beef imports, which are up for the year to date by 11% YOY.
After reaching the trigger level, the Japanese government introduced safeguard measures and increased the tariff on imported frozen beef to 50%. This will impact all nations sending beef to Japan, apart from Australia, Mexico, and Chile, which have trade agreements.
Argentina is trying to start shipments of fresh beef to the US. In August 2017, negotiations appeared to have taken a step closer to reaching an agreement, when Argentina announced that it had opened its market to American pork products, showing that bilateral meat trade is under discussion. If Argentina is successful in gaining entry to the US fresh beef market, it will have access to a 20,000-tonne beef quota.
After having declined by more than 8% during 1H 2017, Brazilian beef exports have shown a strong recovery during Q3 2017. In August 2017, they reaached their highest level in four years. Consequently, beef exports reversed the negative results and have already increased slightly for the first eight months of 2017. Moreover, Brazilian beef exports are likely to sustain volumes above 2016 levels during Q4 2017.
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Angus Gidley-BairdSenior Analyst - Animal Protein Read more
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