Global beef quarterly Q3 2024: New records set in global beef markets, and changing consumer trends reshape China’s beef market
The first half of 2024 was stronger than we expected in global beef markets. Brazil had record production and exports in Q2, China had a record volume of imports in 1H, production volumes in the US were higher than expected, and prices in Europe remained remarkably strong. Looking forward, the markets are waiting for signals of what we believe will unfold. A contraction in US production, improved cattle prices in Brazil, and possibly weaker consumer sentiment in the US.
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Global production looks set to lift slightly in Q4 before falling further into 2025. Higher production volumes in Australia do not offset declines in Europe (-1%), New Zealand (-7%), Brazil, the US, and China but overall Q4 production is expected to be 3.8% higher than the ten-year average. We then expect it will contract, mainly due to lower production volumes in the US and declining volumes in Brazil. The drop in US production below the ten-year average in Q3 2024 and continuation at volumes below the average into 2025 will have a big impact on the global market.
Emerging consumer trends in China are impacting the beef product mix. The Chinese beef market still has ample growth potential, given per capita consumption is lower than other developed Asian countries. However, new consumer trends are emerging, which will change consumption. Overall, the premiumization trend is slowing, while consumers are pursuing quality and value. Rising beef consumption volume, despite slower income growth, shows consumers continue to seek higher quality protein but at reasonable prices.
