Beef Quarterly Q4 2022: As the US Goes, So Goes the World
Beef markets are still performing well, but macroeconomic pressures are building up beneath the surface. Cattle prices are generally favorable, supported by seasonal conditions and consumer demand. But consumer confidence is waning, given the slowing economic backdrop, which may yet cause demand to soften. We see emerging supply-side dynamics that will also influence markets. The central question is whether beef markets are shaped more by demand-side or supply-side pressures as we head into 2023.
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Global beef production is split by the hemisphere, with northern countries generally in a declining production phase while those in the south are increasing into Q1 2023. Overall, we expect total production volumes for key markets in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 to be similar to production a year ago.
Currency is also becoming a bigger influence on global cattle prices. The strength of the US dollar has favored exporting countries, with cattle prices generally dropping in USD terms. Rabobank forecasts the US dollar to remain strong into 2023, which will put pressure on the high volumes of US beef currently being exported.
