Poultry Quarterly Q1 2022: Outlook 2022 – Markets Bullish on Demand Recovery and Challenging Supply

Global poultry markets are expected to be strong in 2022, on the back of reopening economies, increasing vaccination levels, and stronger economic conditions. This improving global market context will be a bumpy road, though, with ups and downs following Covid-19 developments. The industry will need to be ready to adjust sales channels in response to government measures. The operational side will also see challenges, as feed and other input costs, like freight and energy, are expected to stay high. The availability and cost of labor has become a big issue in many countries, restricting production in some markets. Logistics has become more complex, on limited reefer availability and high costs. High steel costs, expensive labor, and worries about higher interest rates are slowing greenfield investment and will reduce supply growth. The combination of stronger demand and these supply challenges will create an environment of stronger prices, which will push producers to focus on yields, procurement, and efficiency in the value chain to reduce feed and labor use. It will also lead to new food security efforts to reduce inflation and keep poultry affordable, especially in emerging markets.

Report summary

Some highlights from this report include:

- Global poultry demand will be strong, with global growth expected to reach 2%, despite the restrictions caused by supply challenges. Wet markets have been more limited due to Covid-19 but will remain important, with modern distribution rising in importance.

- Supply growth in 2H 2021 has been restricted by high costs, avian influenza and other disease concerns, reduced capacity, and limited availability of inputs like genetics and feed additives.

- Input costs are expected to stay high in 2022, with ongoing elevated and volatile feed prices and high labor, logistics, energy, and construction costs. Access to finance and operational efficiency will be key success factors to manage higher costs.

- Global trade will be strong but volatile given the context of relatively tight supply and ongoing Covid-19-related disruptions, avian influenza cases, and African swine fever recovery.

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  • Nan-Dirk Mulder

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Justin Sherrard

    Global Strategist - Animal Protein
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  • Matz Beuchel

    Data Analyst — Animal Protein
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Christine McCracken

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Chenjun Pan

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Don Close

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Dustin Aherin

    Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Eva Gocsik

    Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Gorjan Nikolik

    Senior Analyst - Seafood
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  • Shiva Mudgil

    Analyst - Dairy, F&A Supply Chains
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  • Wagner Yanaguizawa

    Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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