Coffee Outlook Q2 2020: Harvest Time

The precariousness of demand in certain coffee segments continues to be the focus of attention, and we trim demand estimates in a number of countries, mainly due to the extent of the lockdowns and increase in unemployment in countries without unemployment benefits. We foresee a 1m bag drop in global coffee demand in the 2019/20 crop year.

Meanwhile, the supply side is not without concerns, but for now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally. The key risk continues to be a disruption in the Brazilian harvest, which will coincide with the projected peak in infections in Brazil. But in our basic scenario, we assume a full harvest will take place.

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