Coffee Outlook Q3 2020: One Market, Two Minds

The increase in Brazilian output has never been in sharper contrast to the decline in certified stocks, creating volatility at a time when a record Brazilian crop was just harvested.

- Globally, disruptions were relatively small for the coffee supply chain.

- Second quarter trade figures confirm our estimated drop in demand. While our estimates for 2019/20 already accounted for most of the negative effect, Q3 is still to play out. We increase our estimated growth rate for 2020/21 on vaccine hopes.

- The push toward more at-home coffee – especially whole beans and single-serve pods – will last past the Covid crisis. Investments made in e-commerce capabilities now will pay dividends for years to come.

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