Global Orange Juice Outlook 2021/22: Limited Price Gains Ahead

The orange juice category has performed well during the pandemic, with stronger retail sales helping to lift overall demand in the US and other developed markets. “Stronger consumption at home, and consumers’ health concerns during the Covid-19 outbreak have been key to higher demand in 2020/21. However, a return to some sense of normality after vaccinations will likely mean converging back to the long-term trend of gradually declining orange juice consumption in mature markets,” according to Andrés Padilla, Senior Analyst – Beverages.

Supply could see a moderate rebound in 2021/22, with more production in São Paulo after a very small crop in 2020/21. Global inventories remain at relatively high levels, and the rebound in supply forecasted for 2021/22 suggests that will not change in the short term. Price gains in 2021/22 should be modest due to a gradual production recovery in São Paulo and a return to the long-term demand trends of gradual decline after the short-term retail sales gains seen during the pandemic.