Global Orange Juice Outlook 2022/23: Tighter Market Amid Supply Uncertainty

The global orange juice market is seeing the lowest inventories in five years, with diminishing output from Brazil and Florida impacting supply and demand in developed markets having accelerated during the pandemic. In normal times, this would push prices steadily higher. However, long-term demand headwinds remain in place, and a mild recovery in Brazilian juice output is looking possible in 2022/23, which could limit price gains this year.

The key factor to monitor is weather patterns in the Brazilian citrus belt in Q2 and Q3 as the harvest matures. Compared to other sectors, orange juice has, so far, been more resilient to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks, but it has its vulnerabilities too.