Global Orange Juice Outlook 2023/24: Higher for Longer

Record-high orange juice (OJ) prices in 2023 are a consequence of a very tight market, with smaller-than-expected production and low inventories. However, the pace of decline of OJ demand is set to accelerate this year, in the face of high prices and weaker consumer demand, which will, in part, allow the market to find an equilibrium at high levels. Prices will probably remain higher for longer, at least until the 2023/24 Brazilian harvest forecasts provide more clarity on supply relief. For now, the OJ market is staying tight for at least another season, unless there is a significant supply-side surprise for the 2023/24 harvest in Brazil or a much sharper contraction in global demand in 2H 2023.