What Would a Recession Do to Superpremium Wine and Spirits Consumption in the US?

For over a decade, superpremium wine and spirits brands have enjoyed impressive growth rates, easily outpacing the growth of more mainstream and value brands. The combination of attractive growth rates and solid margins has made the superpremium segment the focus of most companies’ M&A strategies. However, the growing expectation of a recession raises questions about how this segment will perform in the case of a downturn. Looking at past downturns, affluent consumers may be less impacted by unemployment and other factors than lower-income consumers, but declines in household net worth have a strong correlation with declines in superpremium wines and spirits. Recent declines in household net worth – and the possibility of more declines to come – suggest we may see softness in the superpremium market in 2023.