Rabobank to Go: Foodservice 2020 – Global Outlook

The global market outlook is for foodservice sales to continue to grow, although some tempering is expected due to macroeconomic uncertainties across most geographies. This report explores the foodservice market in various regions and looks at the four main issues for foodservice executives: the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, delivery, input costs, and sustainability.

Report summary

The Foodservice 2020 Global Outlook explores the issues that are top of mind for foodservice executives. The first of these is the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Consumer confidence, a key driver for foodservice, may be under increased pressure in 2020 as economic growth slows down and geopolitical events add uncertainty and an overall negative sentiment in a number of relevant foodservice markets. On the other hand, purchasing power is expected to be stable. For foodservice operators, it is crucial to secure the customers’ share of wallet. Convenience and customer experience are key elements for achieving this.

“The next issue in global foodservice is the changes in the delivery market,” says Maria Castroviejo, senior analyst at Rabobank. “Online ordering and delivery are, by now, an established part of the foodservice landscape. The key challenge for 2020 is profitability. The current business models are far from perfect. For the restaurants, high fees make the added profits marginal. Platforms are struggling to break even and meet investor expectations. Flaws and risks are becoming more visible for both sides and for society. Yet consumers, restaurants and platforms have a common interest in making it work. Are virtual restaurants and ghost kitchens part of the solution?”

Another concern is input costs. Labor costs remain high, and employee rotation a source of concern in a number of relevant markets (US, UK, Netherlands). This reflects more than just low unemployment: Social and emigration policies and trends, ageing populations, demographic mismatches are some of the structural hurdles. Also, the impact of African swine fever (ASF) will continue to be felt across all animal protein prices and in all markets during 2020.

The last main issue is sustainability. The number of corporates incorporating sustainability-related commitments is increasing, and specific actions are also becoming a reality. Minimizing the impact of single-use items, reducing and managing food waste, responsible sourcing, sustainable store designs and reduction of the carbon footprint are some of the points that the industry will continue to focus on.

  • Maria Castroviejo

    Senior Analyst - Beverages
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  • Umesh Madhavan

    Analyst – Consumer Foods
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  • Michelle Huang

    Analyst – Consumer Foods
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  • JP Frossard

    Analyst – Consumer Foods
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