Dairy Quarterly Q2 2020: Waiting for the Dust to Settle
Milk production is forecast to continue expanding across the dairy-exporting regions, despite weather-related issues, lower milk prices, and efforts to bring supply back in balance with demand in many areas, according to the latest RaboResearch Dairy Quarterly titled “Waiting for the Dust to Settle.”
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“The Northern Hemisphere has experienced a rebound in milk and dairy product prices toward the end of Q2, but it may be too soon to call this a true recovery,” writes Ben Laine, RaboResearch Dairy Analyst. “Much of the price support has been driven by government aid that will likely slow in the months ahead. The upcoming US presidential election could extend heightened levels of support in the US.”
Many dairy markets are still dealing with imbalances from demand destruction due to government lockdowns. The heightened retail sales and lower foodservice sales will begin to converge, returning to a more normal balance, but it will take time, and there will be limitations that will prevent a complete return to previous norms, especially in foodservice sales.
Once government aid and market support slows, market fundamentals will again take hold in a slower economy that will take time to heal from the pandemic's economic damage. Inventory build will put downward pressure on dairy product prices in the months ahead due to the combination of heightened levels of stocks and competition for reduced import demand.
Moreover, the world’s largest dairy import market will be more absent in the world market in months ahead. China’s dairy imports are forecasted to drop 15%YOY in 2020. Weaker currencies will challenge imports elsewhere.
Podcast: Global Dairy Outlook - Waiting for the Dust to Settle
Australia & New Zealand
The underlying global dairy market fundamentals look set to remain very weak for much of 2020. Tim Hunt and Michael Harvey discuss whether New Zealand and Australian dairy farmers will dodge a bullet.
Podcast: Changing Dairy Market Conditions in Oceania - The 2020/21 Season Outlook
Both Australia and New Zealand are coming off of exceptional farmgate milk prices from the 2019/2020 season. Oceania’s milk production season was coming to a close in Q2 2020 as Covid-19 took hold around the globe. Global dairy strategist Mary Ledman and Australia-based senior dairy analyst Michael Harvey discuss the impacts of Covid-19 and the outlook for the 2020/21 production season in Australia and New Zealand.
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Where to go from here
Ben LaineAnalyst - Dairy
Mary LedmanGlobal Sector Strategist – Dairy Read more
Michael HarveySenior Analyst - Dairy Read more
Tom BaileySenior Analyst - Dairy Read more
Emma HigginsAnalyst - Dairy Read more
Andrés PadillaSenior Analyst - Beverages, Dairy, F&A Supply Chains Read more
Sandy ChenSenior Analyst - Dairy
Saskia van BattumAnalyst – Dairy
Richard ScheperAnalyst - Dairy Read more
Shiva MudgilAnalyst - Dairy Read more