Global Dairy Quarterly Q3 2022: Potential Collision Ahead?

Rabobank expects the combined Big-7 milk pool to return to growth in Q4 2022, ending five consecutive year-on-year quarterly declines. This is an unprecedented accomplishment in the past two decades. However, buyer caution is still required. The forecast growth rate exhibits weather risk, is against a weak comparable, and is likely to be below the long-term average through 2023.

Report summary:

After more than a year of contraction, Big-7 exportable surpluses will also increase year-on-year from Q4 2022 onward. A little more milk supply and sluggish dairy demand in home markets will result in Big-7 exportable surpluses expanding into 1H 2023.

Feed prices have fallen, but weather risks linger. Global feed benchmark prices have fallen through Q3 2022, largely as a result of a Ukraine grain corridor opening and Russian exports lifting. Nonetheless, extreme heat in the US threatens crops, and EU spring crops also suffer from unfavorable weather. More disruption to Black Sea trade is still possible.

Milk prices across most export regions remain elevated in Q3 2022 and at record levels in some cases. However, there are already signs that the milk price cycle has peaked. Still, strong farmgate milk prices and some cost relief in the form of lower feed and fertilizer prices in some regions will be welcomed by farmers.

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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Andrés Padilla

    Senior Analyst - Beverages, Dairy, F&A Supply Chains
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  • Mary Ledman

    Global Sector Strategist – Dairy
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  • Sandy Chen

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Richard Scheper

    Analyst - Dairy
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  • Daniëlle Duijndam

    Analyst – Dairy
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