Food & Agribusiness
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China’s latest official data shows child births at 15.2m in 2018, a 12% YOY decline. This is not surprising to independent demographers, but it is a sharp contrast to the government expectation of over 20m child births in the peak years following the 2015 birth relaxation policy. This is not good news for the infant formula (IMF) market, but not an end to growth seekers in the sector.
While it is true that Americans are drinking less milk, demand for other U.S.-produced dairy products continues to grow. Domestically, Americans are eating more cheese, yogurt, and butter, which more than offsets declines in fluid milk consumption. The rest of the world is also demanding more U.S. dairy products. Over the past ten years, U.S. milk production has increased by 13%, accommodating domestic and international demand growth which has resulted from rising incomes and the expansion of quick-service restaurants. Lower milk prices have also encouraged cheese manufacturers to increase production, leading to high stock levels. High stocks coupled with weak domestic prices means consumers are unlikely to face any sticker shock in the near future.
The 2018 theme of slowing Big 7 milk production growth has continued to creep into the final months of the year, according to Rabobank's Dairy Quarterly Q4 2018 report.
A Shuffling of the Deck Chairs The latest annual Rabobank survey of the world’s largest dairy companies...
Cheese is not a part of the traditional Asian diet. By global standards, Asian...