New Zealand Dairy Seasonal Outlook 2023/24: The Pressure Is On

Subdued dairy markets are setting the tone for New Zealand dairy’s 2023/24 season. Prices have plummeted since last year’s peaks, when market fundamentals were very tight with limited supplies in export regions. This came on the heels of aggressive Chinese import demand in 2021 and supply chain issues prompting buyers to procure raw materials. Compared to last year, dairy commodity prices have fallen significantly and are below medium-term averages.

Farmgate prices for the coming season depend on demand. Mounting pressure from greater year-on-year milk production growth in export regions through 2023 alongside subdued Chinese interest through 2H 2023 will keep prices under the pump. When we can expect a rebound will hinge on meaningful Chinese imports, as China’s dairy market rebalance is underway