Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook: Demand Revival

Prices across the global fertilizer complex have climbed off ten-year lows during the second half of 2020, primarily supported by improved demand in several major geographies. This has played out most significantly in Brazil and India, two of the top-three biggest global importers for the last five years.

Report summary

Heavy supplies and growing production capacity will continue to weigh on prices across the nutrient complex.

In the immediate term, we expect urea and phosphate prices to continue to be supported by demand until the start of Q2 2021. Once seasonal demand from the northern hemisphere subsides, markets will again be exposed to heavy supplies.

On an encouraging note for fertilizer suppliers, we see a more positive time ahead for potash markets. Importers in China and India are expected to continue to cover inventories, and sustained demand in the US and Brazil will ensure demand remains. On the supply side, current low prices may limit production in high-cost plants and delay new projects coming online. As a result, we expect potash prices to increase at a constant rate over 1H 2021.

  • Matheus Almeida

    Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs
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  • Dirk Jan Kennes

    Global Strategist - Farm Inputs
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Jingyan Sun

    Analyst - Farm Inputs
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  • Ankur Raj

    Analyst - Farm Inputs
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  • Samuel Taylor

    Analyst - Farm Inputs
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  • Harry Smit

    Senior Analyst - Farm Inputs
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  • Chia Kai Kang

    Associate Analyst – Farm Inputs
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  • Elizabeth Lunik

    Analyst - Farm Inputs
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