Semiannual fertilizer outlook: What is next?

So far, 2023 seems to be a much calmer year than 2022 for the fertilizer market. Some remnants of last year’s complications remain, but our models indicate a recovery in global fertilizer usage in 2023 of around 3%, compared to the 7% drop in 2022.

For 2024, our initial analysis suggests an increase in fertilizer use of close to 5%. These figures align with our Affordability Index, which shows much better conditions for purchasing fertilizers than a year ago.

The main nutrients will face their natural challenges in the market. The nitrogen market, for example, struggles with lower demand from corn and wheat growers. At the same time, winter is approaching in Europe, resulting in more uncertainty in the natural gas market and related uncertainty in the production cost of nitrogen fertilizers. Grain and oilseed markets also face some uncertainties, with an El Niño at the doorstep after a few good crops in Brazil and the US. Conversely, the potash and phosphates outlook is better, with the potash market going through an ample supply period and the phosphate market also on the rise with the return of Chinese MAP/DAP exports.